Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for MAWAR-23 in Guam from 20 May 2023 00:00 UTC to 01 Jun 2023 12:00 UTC

01 Jun 2023 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MAWAR-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Guam
Exposed population	170 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	296 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (24 May 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	93 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	296 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

93 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.4 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	20 May 2023 00:00	167	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
2	20 May 2023 06:00	157	230 thousand	30 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
3	20 May 2023 12:00	167	230 thousand	50 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
4	20 May 2023 18:00	167	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
5	21 May 2023 00:00	176	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
6	21 May 2023 06:00	167	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
7	21 May 2023 12:00	176	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
8	21 May 2023 18:00	176	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
9	22 May 2023 00:00	185	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
10	22 May 2023 06:00	204	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
11	22 May 2023 12:00	194	230 thousand	160 thousand	Guam
12	22 May 2023 18:00	222	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
13	23 May 2023 00:00	231	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
14	23 May 2023 06:00	259	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
15	23 May 2023 12:00	259	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
16	23 May 2023 18:00	231	380 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
17	24 May 2023 00:00	222	340 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
18	24 May 2023 06:00	222	240 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
19	24 May 2023 12:00	222	490 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
20	24 May 2023 18:00	241	320 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
21	25 May 2023 00:00	269	500 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
22	25 May 2023 06:00	278	1.3 million	170 thousand	Guam
23	25 May 2023 12:00	287	2.5 million	170 thousand	Guam
24	25 May 2023 18:00	287	3.5 million	170 thousand	Guam
25	26 May 2023 00:00	296	470 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
26	26 May 2023 06:00	287	450 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
27	26 May 2023 12:00	269	480 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
28	26 May 2023 18:00	269	1.6 million	170 thousand	Guam
29	27 May 2023 00:00	250	2.6 million	170 thousand	Guam
30	27 May 2023 06:00	250	7.9 million	170 thousand	Guam
31	27 May 2023 12:00	241	14.2 million	170 thousand	Guam
32	27 May 2023 18:00	222	23.3 million	170 thousand	Guam
33	28 May 2023 00:00	204	8.3 million	170 thousand	Guam
34	28 May 2023 06:00	194	28.1 million	170 thousand	Guam
35	28 May 2023 12:00	194	5.1 million	230 thousand	Japan, Guam
36	28 May 2023 18:00	194	10.4 million	270 thousand	Japan, Guam
37	29 May 2023 00:00	194	16.1 million	230 thousand	Japan, Guam
38	29 May 2023 06:00	194	11.1 million	220 thousand	Japan, Guam
39	29 May 2023 12:00	185	3.4 million	170 thousand	Japan, Guam
40	29 May 2023 18:00	167	2.2 million	170 thousand	Japan, Guam
41	30 May 2023 00:00	148	1.9 million	170 thousand	Guam
42	30 May 2023 06:00	139	2.2 million	170 thousand	Guam
43	30 May 2023 12:00	130	1.8 million	170 thousand	Guam
44	30 May 2023 18:00	120	2.5 million	170 thousand	Guam
45	31 May 2023 00:00	111	1.9 million	170 thousand	Guam
46	31 May 2023 06:00	120	13.4 million	170 thousand	Guam
47	31 May 2023 12:00	120	1.9 million	170 thousand	Guam
48	31 May 2023 18:00	111	2.7 million	170 thousand	Guam
49	01 Jun 2023 00:00	102	2.9 million	170 thousand	Guam
50	01 Jun 2023 06:00	93	29.4 million	170 thousand	Guam
51	01 Jun 2023 12:00	93	2.4 million	170 thousand	Guam

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	20 May 2023 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	2400 people	5.4, 149.1
2	20 May 2023 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	2400 people	5.7, 149.2
3	20 May 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	4400 people	5.7, 149.3
4	20 May 2023 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	4400 people	6.1, 149.2
5	21 May 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	5500 people	6.8, 149.2
6	21 May 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	6000 people	7.6, 148.7
7	21 May 2023 12:00	Category 1	130	<1000 people	2700 people	8, 148.3
8	21 May 2023 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	<1000 people	8.5, 148.1
9	22 May 2023 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	<1000 people	9.1, 147.7
10	22 May 2023 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	<1000 people	9.5, 147
11	22 May 2023 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	<1000 people	10, 146.9
12	22 May 2023 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	10.5, 146.8
13	23 May 2023 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	170000 people	11.2, 146.9
14	23 May 2023 06:00	Category 4	250	no people	220000 people	11.8, 146.5
15	23 May 2023 12:00	Category 4	250	170000 people	220000 people	12.2, 146.1
16	23 May 2023 18:00	Category 4	222	170000 people	220000 people	12.5, 145.7
17	24 May 2023 00:00	Category 4	222	170000 people	220000 people	13, 145.5
18	24 May 2023 06:00	Category 4	222	170000 people	220000 people	13.6, 145.2
19	24 May 2023 12:00	Category 4	222	170000 people	220000 people	13.8, 144.7
20	24 May 2023 18:00	Category 4	241	76000 people	220000 people	14.1, 144.1
21	25 May 2023 00:00	Category 4	250	no people	220000 people	14.3, 143.5
22	25 May 2023 06:00	Category 5	269	no people	220000 people	14.5, 142.8
23	25 May 2023 12:00	Category 5	278	no people	no people	14.7, 141.6
24	25 May 2023 18:00	Category 5	287	no people	no people	14.9, 140.5
25	26 May 2023 00:00	Category 5	296	no people	no people	15.1, 139.3
26	26 May 2023 06:00	Category 5	287	no people	no people	15.3, 138
27	26 May 2023 12:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	15.7, 136.5
28	26 May 2023 18:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	16.1, 134.8
29	27 May 2023 00:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	16.4, 133.3
30	27 May 2023 06:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	16.6, 132.2
31	27 May 2023 12:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	16.8, 130.9
32	27 May 2023 18:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	17, 129.7
33	28 May 2023 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	87000 people	17.3, 128.7
34	28 May 2023 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	17.5, 127.9
35	28 May 2023 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	32000 people	17.9, 127.3
36	28 May 2023 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	210000 people	18.5, 126.9
37	29 May 2023 00:00	Category 3	194	no people	140000 people	19.1, 126.2
38	29 May 2023 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	300000 people	19.4, 125.8
39	29 May 2023 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	110000 people	19.7, 125.6
40	29 May 2023 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	91000 people	20.1, 125.4
41	30 May 2023 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	22000 people	20.4, 125.1
42	30 May 2023 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	72000 people	20.5, 125
43	30 May 2023 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	120000 people	20.7, 125
44	30 May 2023 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	130000 people	21.1, 125
45	31 May 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	120000 people	21.5, 125.2
46	31 May 2023 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	5.4 million people	22.3, 125.3
47	31 May 2023 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	1.3 million people	22.7, 125.5
48	31 May 2023 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	1.5 million people	23.5, 125.6
49	01 Jun 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.5 million people	24.2, 125.9
50	01 Jun 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.5 million people	25, 126.2
51	01 Jun 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.5 million people	25.8, 127.1
51	02 Jun 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.5 million people	27.1, 129.4
51	02 Jun 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	120000 people	28.3, 132.6
51	03 Jun 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	290000 people	29.9, 136.6
51	03 Jun 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	500000 people	32.4, 141.7
51	04 Jun 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	38.6, 154.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Japan	1.7 million people
China	7400 people
Philippines	56000 people
Northern Mariana Is.	46000 people
Guam	170000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Okinawa	Japan	1.1 million people
Kyushu	Japan	110000 people
Taiwan	China	7400 people
Cagayan Valley	Philippines	56000 people
Chubu	Japan	36000 people
Kanto	Japan	420000 people
Northern Mariana Is.	Northern Mariana Islands	46000 people
Guam	Guam	170000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Naha	Okinawa	Japan	City	300000 people
Ishigaki	Okinawa	Japan	City	45000 people
Mitsune	Shizuoka	Japan	City	-
Tateyama	Chiba	Japan	City	49000 people
Chikura	Chiba	Japan	City	-
Ohara	Chiba	Japan	City	20000 people
Mobara	Chiba	Japan	City	96000 people
Katakai	Chiba	Japan	City	-
Choshi	Chiba	Japan	City	84000 people
Saipan		Northern Mariana Islands	Capital	62000 people
Hagåtña		Guam	Capital	1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Naha	OKA	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Kumejima	UEO	7	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Futenma Mcas		75	Mil.	Paved	Yes	9000
Kadena AB	DNA	45	Mil.	Paved	Yes	12100
Ie Jima	IEJ	75	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Yoron	RNJ	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3900
Hirara	MMY	45	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Shimojishima	SHI	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Okierabu	OKE	31	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3900
		9				0
Tokunoshima	TKN	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Ishigaki	ISG	26	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Iriomote Jima		12				0
Hateruma	HTR	unknown				0
Amami O Shima	ASJ	8	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Kikai		6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3900
Minami Daito	MMD	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Kitadaito	KTD	24	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Yonaguni	OGN	21	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Yakushima	KUM	37	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Tanegashima	TNE	97	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Nishinoomote	IIN	unknown				0
Basco	BSO	56	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Hachijo Jima	HAC	92	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900
		29				0
Miyake Jima	MYE	20	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3900
Oshima	OIM	40	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3900
Tateyama		3				0
Commonwealth Health Center		5				0
Nikko		18				0
West Tinian	TIQ	82	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900
Saipan International	SPN	66	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8700
Dynasty		46				0
Rota I International	ROP	185	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000
A.B. Won Pat International	GUM	91				0
Andersen AFB	UAM	191				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Naha	JPNAH	Japan
Kume Island		Japan
Nishihara	JPNHR	Japan
Nakagusuku Wan		Japan
Heianza	JPHEI	Japan
Kin Wan	JPKIN	Japan
Oku		Japan
Myako Island		Japan
Hirara		Japan
Ishigaki Island		Japan
Ishigaki		Japan
Irionote Island		Japan
Kita		Japan
Okino		Japan
Tokara Island		Japan
Basco		Philippines
Port San Vicente		Philippines
Tori Island		Japan
Aoga Island		Japan
Yaene		Japan
Kozu Island		Japan
Mikura		Japan
Miyake		Japan
Shimoda	JPSMD	Japan
Nii		Japan
Oshima	JPOSM	Japan
Tateyama	JPTTY	Japan
Katsuura Ko		Japan
Choshi	JPCHO	Japan
Guguan Island		Northern Mariana Islands
Farallon de Medinilla		Northern Mariana Islands
Saipan	MPSPN	Northern Mariana Islands
Tinian		Northern Mariana Islands
Rota		Northern Mariana Islands
Apra Harbor		Guam
Apra (Agana)	GUAPR	Guam

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Zukeyama	Kurashiki	Yonabarugawa	1995
	Okukubi	Okukubigawa	2001
Kannako	Kanna	Kannafukujigawa	1993
Sokobaru	Sokobaru	Sokobarugawa	1992
Maezato	Maezato	Miyaragawa	1982
Nagura	Nagura	Naguragawa	1996
Saikyo	Saikyo	Matanobugawa	1984
Sakuma	Sakuma	Okuzuregawa	1990
Kameyamako	Kameyama	Obitsugawa	1980
Takatakiko	Takataki	Yorogawa	1990

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Camp Quezon, Guam. This height is estimated for 24 May 2023 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (43 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 20 of 24 May 2023 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 May 2023 08:00	Camp Quezon	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 08:00	Harmon Village	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 08:00	Oceanview	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 08:00	Dededo	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 08:00	South Acres	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 08:00	Asbeco	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 08:00	Adacao	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 08:00	Ipapao	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 08:00	Potts Junction	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 08:00	Perez Acres	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 08:00	Spring Hill Subdivision	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 08:00	Upi	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 07:00	Gayinero	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 07:00	Asatdas	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 07:00	Lupog	Guam	0.8
	24 May 2023 09:00	Asan	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 09:00	Hagatna	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 09:00	Sinajana	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 09:00	Mongmong	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 09:00	Yona	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 09:00	Tamuning	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 09:00	Barrigada	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 10:00	Lockwood Terrace	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 10:00	Camp Bright	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 10:00	Piti	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 09:00	Talofofo	Guam	0.4
	24 May 2023 09:00	Ylig	Guam	0.4
	24 May 2023 09:00	Agat	Guam	0.4
	24 May 2023 09:00	Santa Rita	Guam	0.4
	24 May 2023 08:00	Inarajan	Guam	0.3
	24 May 2023 10:00	Songsong	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	24 May 2023 10:00	Teteto	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	24 May 2023 09:00	Rota	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	24 May 2023 09:00	Sinapalo	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	24 May 2023 09:00	Umatac	Guam	0.2
	24 May 2023 09:00	Merizo	Guam	0.2
	28 May 2023 09:00	Wright	Philippines	0.1
	28 May 2023 08:00	Pequit	Philippines	0.1
	28 May 2023 08:00	Pabanong	Philippines	0.1
	28 May 2023 08:00	Hinabangan	Philippines	0.1
	28 May 2023 08:00	Bangon	Philippines	0.1
	28 May 2023 04:00	Mualbual	Philippines	0.1
	28 May 2023 09:00	Catbalogan	Philippines	0.1